George Santos settles CFTC probe with $35,000 fine over Kalshi State of the Union trades

August 2, 2026  ·  3 min read

Former Congressman George Santos has agreed to pay more than $35,000 and accept a three-year trading ban to settle federal allegations that he manipulated prediction markets on Kalshi by gaming a contract tied to his own attendance at this year’s State of the Union address.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced the settlement Friday, alleging Santos used social media posts to manipulate contract prices on whether he would attend the presidential address to Congress, then profited by trading on the same market. Santos did not admit wrongdoing but accepted a fine roughly twice the amount of his alleged profits to avoid further litigation.

According to the CFTC investigation, Santos created a Kalshi account on February 11, roughly three weeks after the prediction platform launched a market on his State of the Union attendance. Over the next 10 days, he funded the account with $7,000 and traded exclusively on contracts involving himself.

Social media posts allegedly moved markets

Federal investigators allege that on February 22 at approximately 2:31 a.m., Santos posted on X asking followers whether he should wear a “muted or serious suit to the SOTU [State of the Union] or a bedazzled one.” Within hours, the price of “Yes” contracts on his attendance reportedly jumped from $0.15 to $0.70 per contract.

Later that day, Santos allegedly exited his entire position, selling all 30,874 contracts for a profit of $3,448.43. He then withdrew $10,146.07 from his Kalshi account and transferred the funds to a Venmo account created just four days earlier, according to the CFTC order.

Over the next three days, Santos reportedly posted a series of contradictory messages on social media, alternating between describing travel problems that would prevent his attendance and directly telling at least one person he would attend. During this period, his airline and train tickets had allegedly been canceled by the operators.

Shortly after posting a video stating “I am going to be there for the State of the Union in the gallery guys,” Santos allegedly built an $8,650 position on the “No” side of the market. The day after he did not attend the address, he reportedly cashed out that position for a $14,390 profit.

Allegations of market manipulation

The CFTC order alleges that “Santos acted willfully or, at the very least, recklessly. Santos traded in an event contract where he could influence the outcome of the underlying event and knowingly made misleading public statements and omissions about his activities in relation to the underlying event to influence the contract price for the benefit of his trading position.”

Joe Murray, an attorney for Santos, issued a statement Friday emphasizing that his client “has settled without admitting any of the Commission’s allegations, findings, or conclusions. He chose a prompt, practical resolution rather than protracted, costly litigation, and that choice should not be mistaken for an admission of any wrongdoing.”

Santos served less than a year in the U.S. House of Representatives before being expelled in 2023. He is a convicted felon who received a commutation of his 87-month prison sentence on wire fraud and aggravated identity theft charges from President Donald Trump last year, reportedly after serving just three months.

The settlement marks one of the first enforcement actions targeting alleged manipulation of prediction markets, a sector that has grown rapidly as platforms like Kalshi expand their offerings on political events and public figures.

This article reports on allegations and legal proceedings as described by the cited source. Any charges or accusations mentioned are unproven, and all individuals are presumed innocent unless and until found guilty in a court of law.